- La confiance dans les pouvoirs publics s'affaiblit de plus en plus car les intérêts personnels priment sur les institutions. Rééquilibrage nécessaire.
- We have already argued that the BRIC concept no longer makes any sense, and that investment in these countries now has to be approached in a discriminating way. The vanishing of correlation became even more obvious in the first quarter of 2015, often leaving investors no choice but to reject the asset class as a whole.
- Volatility from possible Greek exit can be an opportunity
- Grande-Bretagne. Le muscle politique manquera pour mettre en chantier les indispensables réformes économiques de fond. Déclin du processus démocratique.
- Choosing between an integrated system and the market’s best tools is becoming a real dilemma for banks in today’s environment.
- In our series of articles examining potential political muscle in major economies, we now look at Spain and find the country busy shaking things up. That is likely to be a very good thing in the longer term, because the country's traditional political parties and the "barons" in the regions have colluded to create a a system that lacks accountability and transparency, and that has brought wide-spread corruption in its wake. However, in the near term, the shifting political landscape is likely to detract from further reform and this at a time when half of the country's young are still unemployed. This year could be the best year in Spanish markets for some time to come.
- The drop in oil prices has focused observers’ attention on commodity markets. True, the size of the drop (30-40% YTD) was unexpected. It is chiefly attributable to a supply side issue, where Saudi Arabia sees a glut, rather than to weaker demand.
- France will hold Departmental elections on 22 and 29 March which could cause turbulence because of a likely strong performance of the National Front (although that party is not expected to capture more than three out of 101 departments), Any stress the French markets suffer around these dates are likely to present buying opportunities in the light of the country's relatively well-oiled political machine.
- We still view equities positively for next year, but we expect measured progress accompanied by greater volatility. The latter will stem notably from concerns surrounding the approach of the Fed’s key rate increase. The expected increase in share prices will be driven by earnings growth, which will in turn get a boost from lower commodity prices, that of oil foremost among them.
- Low oil prices might be anopportunity for GCC economies to reinvent themselves
- For financial markets, it is the monetary policies of the biggest countries that matter most. As we have seen, those policies remain accommodative overall. As a result, investors have been forced to seek out returns. This has benefited the bond market virtually across the board in 2014 through early December, although to varying degrees depending on the segment.
- While the potential returns are attractive, there are challenges and pitfalls to overcome.