Best wishes for a happy New Year
- In the wake of the SNB decision to abandon the peg against the euro and let the exchange rate float freely, an exaggerated pessimism regarding the Swiss economy has taken hold. Markets tend to over-focus on bilateral exchange rates when trade is obviously global.
- The lower oil price is a game changer, and an event which will allow for stronger growth and lower inflation to coexist. This is a rare phenomenon which we call "transflation". Barring any unexpected events that send oil prices higher, the outlook for 2015 is pro-growth, pro-low inflation, and pro-risk assets in general.
The new generation of HNWIs in the Gulf is different. They arc more educated, with a focus on structure, analytics and asset allocation, and this has huge effects on their investment strategy.
Divulgare conoscenze di finanza e di economia è uno degli obiettivi prioritari di Marie Owens Thomsen, capo economista di Crédit Agricole Private Banking.
- The world economy is experiencing a rare event: a deflationary expansion. This is a state where a positive supply shock in an environment of constant aggregate demand causes prices and/or inflation to fall and GDP to expand.
Does currency ranking by daily trading volume mirror countries’ sizes? The US dollar is far out in front: the currency of the largest global economy is indeed the most traded on currency markets. But the rest of the rankings have their share of surprises.
- In our preceding issue, we dealt with potential problems linked to the bond market’s size and liquidity. Beyond that, our attention is primarily drawn to the Federal Reserve’s timing of key rate hikes on the one hand and the pace of the ECB’s balance sheet expansion on the other.
- From the broadest possible perspective, monetary policies appear to diverge by country. Although 11 central banks raised key interest rates in 2014 (including in India and Brazil), 12 cut them (including the ECB). Actually, what matters most is the dichotomy between the policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England and those of the ECB and Bank of Japan.
Seven years have passed since the beginning of a global liquidity and real estate crisis that dragged the Spanish economy and real estate market down along with it.