- Hostage to the news headlines as the story unfolds, we nevertheless provide an update on the Greek situation and the issues faced by the creditors in the wake of yesterday's missed payment. We continue to believe that a solution will be found that allows Greece to remain within the European Monetary Union.
- After the US Q1 GDP results, we take a look at the economic surprises and compare the US with the Euro Zone. The comparison was strongly in favour of the Euro Zone in March this year, and it has since narrowed markedly. However, it is not shrinking as fast as we previously anticipated and the Euro Zone still conserves the upper hand at this point in time. The second half of the year ought to produce an advantage for the US.
- Despite increasingly divergent monetary policies, including the ECB’s quantitative easing and the US central bank’s key rate hike, almost all the hard-currency bond market segments have generated positive total performances since the start of the year, a notable exception being Greece.
- Jean-Yves Hocher, Crédit Agricole’ Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Head of Corporate and Investment Banking and Private Banking was interviewed by the journalists of the Swiss daily Le Temps (published 12 June 2015).
- Some equity markets were marked by profit-taking at the end of the first quarter, while the oil price more or less returned to its end-February levels. Both the update of our allocation model and that of our total return estimations obviously require us to look beyond these day-to-day fluctuations.
- The Greek macro-economic situation has deteriorated since the Syriza government came to power, and this is a crying shame as well as poor repayment for all the austerity the population has endured. While dire, the situation is nevertheless contained if analysed in a wider context. In essence, we assign 80% probability to Greece staying in the euro with a remaining non-trivial 20% risk of a catastrophe.
- With China having entered a new growth regime, at under 7% a year in the next five years and under 6% a year in the five years after that, it comes as no surprise that the markets are looking for another complementary or alternative investment territory. And India is an obvious candidate.
- Le PIB indien doit davantage à un changement de méthodologie comptable et à la chute du cours du pétrole qu’aux mérites d’un gouvernement encore jeune.
- La confiance dans les pouvoirs publics s'affaiblit de plus en plus car les intérêts personnels priment sur les institutions. Rééquilibrage nécessaire.
- We have already argued that the BRIC concept no longer makes any sense, and that investment in these countries now has to be approached in a discriminating way. The vanishing of correlation became even more obvious in the first quarter of 2015, often leaving investors no choice but to reject the asset class as a whole.
- Volatility from possible Greek exit can be an opportunity